Why Providence will upset Notre Dame (and why they won't)

Why Providence Will Beat Notre Dame:

Depth: In Notre Dame's win over UCLA starting guards Tory Jackson and Ben Hansbrough played 39 minutes, as did Luke Harangody.  In their loss to Loyola-Marymount Harangody played a full 40, Jackson 38, Hansbrough 37, and forward Tim Abromaitis 36.  In their loss to Northwestern it was more of the same: Harangody 39, Hansbrough 38, Jackson 40.

In both the UCLA and Loyola games only one player scored off of the bench and only two saw minutes.

If ever there was a game that presented itself to Keno Davis' run and gun style this is it.  The Irish aren't athletic and with 11 players consistently getting minutes for Davis, the Friars would be best served to sprint into the open court and and force the action inside in the halfcourt set.

The rim will be open.  While Notre Dame sports a big frontline, Harangody is their only true bruiser. The 6'8 230 pound Tyrone Nash only averages 5 rebounds per game and has one blocked shot in his last six games.

Abromaitis is 6'8, 235, a perimeter big who will kill you from 3, but won't be counted on for more than a handful of rebounds.  He has four blocks in 13 games.

Reserve forward Carleton Scott is the only member of the Irish averaging a block a game. 

Loyola-Marymount shot 52% against them on 12/12.  A stumbling UCLA squad shot 58% in the first half.  The Irish did hold Northwestern to 43% for the game, but allowed 42 points and 48% shooting in a 2nd half in which ND let the game get away. 

They are blocking 3.5 shots per game, while an underwhelming PC D is swatting 5 per.

3's will be there.  ND's opponents are shooting just shy of 40% from 3 against them this year and making over seven per game.  To put that in perspective, a struggling Friar defense is holding opponents to 30% from 3 and 5.1 made per game.

If Providence shoots 40% from 3 or somehow manages to keep the Irish below 35% (they are hitting 42% on the season) the Friars have a great shot.


Why Providence Will Not Beat Notre Dame:

Horror show halfs.  This young Friar team will quickly learn that you aren't going to win in the Big East playing a terrible half.  After holding Alabama to 29% shooting in the first half the Tide shot 53% in the 2nd.

Boston College ran out to an 11 point halftime lead after shooting 54% in the 1st half. 

PC was a miserable 30% in the 2nd half against Mercer.  Northeastern shot 55% in the 2nd half.  PC shot 58% in the 1st half against URI and 37% in the 2nd.  Iona's shooting percentage jumped from 39% to 59% from half one to two. 

You get the picture.  Providence can't play well in pockets starting tomorrow night.  They will, it's what young teams looking for an identity do, but the sooner they start to put together 35 good minutes of basketball, instead of 20-25, they will start to win close games.

The Irish can really shoot.  Five of the seven ND regulars shoot over 50% from the field.  Ridiculous.  Hansbrough and Abromaitis continue the tradition of Notre Dame shooters, both hitting at over 50% from 3.  All frightening for Friar fans questioning if this team can defend at all.

Harangody: Who covers this guy once Bilal Dixon picks up two quick fouls?  What a horrible position to put Ray Hall in if Russ Permenter proves he can't handle him.  Say what you will about Jon Kale and Geoff McDermott, but it will be one of the few games this year when Friar fans might actually miss them.

The double-double machine got into foul trouble a year ago in Providence and only played 24 minutes.  Frighteningly, he put up 18 and 8 in just over a half of action.  What will he do this year to less experienced kids, playing 38 minutes?

Welcome to the Big East, rookies.  Seven Friars make their Big East debutes tomorrow night in a building that ND had won nearly 50 in a row in prior to having their streak snapped a year ago. 

Summary:

While South Bend is a tough opener for the young Friars this crowd won't be any more hostile than Rhode Island and the Friars have been on the road four times already. 

Personnel-wise, this is one of the better matchups when Keno ball is really rolling.  The eyes of a fast-breaking, rim attacking, up tempo team should widen when they play a team without much depth, a single shot blocker, or much athleticism. 

If I'm Keno Davis I'm drilling attacking the basket into the heads of Marshon Brooks, Greedy Peterson and Vincent Council.  They won't be able to slow Harangody, but they can get their bench involved early by drawing fouls, a bench that Mike Brey simply hasn't played in close games.  This ND team isn't as experienced as the one that overcame Harangody's foul trouble in Providence a year ago.  What happens if he goes to the bench early again?  Attack, attack, attack.

While ND hasn't defended the 3 well to this point of the season, turning this one into an outside shooting contest is playing into the hands of ND.  Even if they are hitting early, it might be a long night if PC starts chucking from deep.

PC hasn't done much in the past two contests to instill confidence in their fanbase as they head on the road to face the Big East's preseason player of the year.  There isn't much reason to believe Providence will be able to slow Harangody or their shooters, but this will be one of the BE games in which PC has an athletic advantage.  Do they crash the boards and run, or does this turn into a halfcourt game in which they try to match 3s?

Key Matchup:

Greedy Peterson versus Tyrone Nash - Nash is a solid defender in the paint, but is he athletic enough to stay with Peterson?  Notre Dame better hope so because they might not have anyone else who can check him.  I don't think this guy can.  After Nash ND doesn't have many options.

Greedy has 5 double doubles in his last 7 games, with the two non double doubles coming with 22 and 9 and 18 and 9 efforts against Brown and Northeastern. 

Will Peterson continue to be the 18 and 11 guy he has been through 12 games?  If so, ND has a potential problem on their hands.

Asking Greedy to continue to be an 18 and 11 guy, or even a 15 and 10 guy would be asking him to put up one of the best statistical seasons in Friar Big East history.  Providence hasn't had a player average a double double since Michael Smith's 12.9 and 11.5 in 1993-94 (and don't bother looking up Ryan Gomes stats, the closest he came was with 9.7 rebounds in 2002-03)

Readers Inquire: Douthit over Herb?

Since posting my all-decade team there hasn't been much debate from fans, other than those who wrote to me asking how I could put Marcus Douthit on the 1st team ahead of Herb Hill.

On the surface, Hill has better numbers, with a majority of them coming in a monster 19-8 senior season that Douthit couldn't touch offensively.  I began thinking I had short-changed Herb when I looked at their career stats:

Hill: 9.7 ppg, 5.2 rebounds, 189 blocks
Douthit: 5.9 ppg, 4.6 rebounds, 295 blocks

It's tough to argue against the numbers, but I'm sticking with Douthit after digging deeper.  Here's why:

The Case for Marcus Douthit:

The biggest buzz coming out of Providence right now is all about defense.  Can Keno coach it?  Does he instill the importance of it in practice?  Is he content with outscoring teams?  Doesn't he understand that you win with defense? 

There are legitimate concerns about the Friars ability to make stops, which inevitably leads to losses.  Everyone is in agreement there, yet most would rather have another Herbert Hill than they would another Marcus Douthit. 

Why does Douthit get the nod here?  Defense and winning.

Winning:

• Douthit was one of only three Friars to play in two NCAA tournaments in the decade (Chris Anrin, Sheiku Kabba)
• His teams were 25 games over .500, while Hill was 10 games over.  Hill's record is boosted by a 20-9 freshman season in which he only took 6 shots all season and averaged .7 rebounds per game in 11 games played.  Take that season away and he's sporting a sub-500 record. 
• The year after Douthit left Providence, Hill's third year on campus, the Friars went from a 20 win NCAA team to 14-17 with a returning senior All American. 
• Douthit played on two teams that won 11 Big East games (a Providence record).
• Starting with the 2003 'things just changed here because we're going all defense and no Laksa' St. John's win, Douthit and Providence went 28-12 for the remainder of his career, as the 2nd best player on the team. 

Defense:

• Over 100 more blocks over the course of his career than Hill and 2nd all-time at Providence
• Points per game against in Douthit's four years at Providence: 66.1, 69.7, 67.6, 64.4
• Points per game against the year after Douthit left: 72.3 (last in the Big East)
• Points per game against in Herb Hill's last three years at PC: 72.3, 74.7, 71.7 (good for last in BE, 14th, and 14th). 

64 ppg against in 2003-04 and you can make the argument that Douthit was the only stopper among the group.  The slow footed Donnie McGrath and defensively pedestrian Sheiku Kabba were not exposed as the Friars filtered everything into Douthit.  Once Douthit was taken out of the equation Welsh's 2-3 zone never recovered, and really, never did he.  They gave up 8 more points per game the following season and tumbled to 14-17, with the only other losses being a defensively erratic Rob Sanders, Chris Anrin, Maris Laksa, and Kabba.  Douthit was the X-factor.

Perhaps Douthit gets the nod today because the Friars, as currently constituted, will be able to score with anyone and the missing piece seems to be that guy who they can filter the action to.  The guy who made Donnie McGrath and Sheiku Kabba non-liabilities on the floor has me wondering how this edition of the Friars would look with a great presence defending the rim. 

Would a 19-8 season from Herb Hill win this team a few more games?  Of course. They still lack an efficient scoring presence who makes consistently good decisions and has a go to move, like Herb's hook shot, that seemed to never miss.

Does it make them a tournament team?  I'm not so sure.  But a kid who ranked in the top 10 nationally in blocked shots, as Douthit was in his junior and senior seasons, on a team that scores 84 points per game and we'd have a legitimate discussion.

In Douthit's case, his impact will never be explained in a media guide or stat book.  What kind of damage would Deron Williams, Dee Brown, and Luther Head have done to the Friars had they met a year after Douthit graduated?  Would Williams and Brown have ever combined to shoot 3-17 against any edition of the Friars post-Douthit? 

Tim Welsh made the tournament twice in ten years on the heels of two dominant defenders.  Over the past decade there was John Linehan, Marcus Douthit, and then everyone else.  Providence rarely struggled to score over the past decade, but they did struggle to win.  Defense wins ball games. 

On defense and body of work over four years, Douthit gets the nod.

A Decade of Friar Basketball: Part II

Part II of a look back on the past decade in Friar basketball.

Biggest villain: Boston College.  Left for the ACC, got shut out, spouted off about making the Big East better than ever, and left again for the ACC.  That alone makes them the villain of the decade, but even after joining the ACC they continued with the spin, including noting that they went to the ACC to join their academic peers. 

On the court the Eagles saw more success in the past decade than ever before, but there was plenty of trouble off of it, as Bob Hohler outlined in this 2005 article.  Combine this with chest beating personalities Ryan Sidney, Jared Dudley, and Sean Marshall and it will be tough to find a better villain in the next decade.

Best MC: Love the rap, John Hope, but I'll always be a Dolan guy.  I stuck with him through "Go Friars!" chants down 15 with 3 minutes to go and I'm not jumping ship now.

Fans behaving badly: It was great decade for fans behaving badly in Providence.  Here are the top five:

1. PC student throws a sex toy on the court
2. Jeff Xavier's brother rushing the floor to yell at the refs after Xavier took an elbow to the head
3. A message board poster claiming that Ben Gordon gave him a threatening stare down while eating an ice cream at the mall
4. A fellow message board poster challenging another poster to a fist fight and offers to meet him at TF Green Airport if he's up for it
5. Kevin McNamara's ill-fated chat with irate fans

Biggest Overreaction to non-news: When it was rumored that European players could lose their eligibility due to previous professional status Providence went into a state of panic.  Sophomores Maris Laksa (dubbed "Laksa Heart" by yours truly) and Chris Anrin were coming off of solid freshmen seasons and incoming frosh Tuukka Kotti looked impressive in the preseason.  All three missed minimal time and had equally minimal impact over the next three years.

Complete Aberration: Donta Wade erupting for 38 points, on 10-17 3's at Notre Dame in what might have been the worst season in PC basketball history.

The "What was his name again?" award: Donnell Allick.  Can someone tell me anything about this kid's game?  Anyone?  I think he was supposed to be a defensive stopper, but I can't even think of a promising Mal Brown moment.

Worst Personal Decision: Unable to get off of work to head to Kansas City for Providence's 1st round, Friday night tournament game against Pacific, I decided to risk it and fly out to Kansas City on Saturday morning, assuming PC would take on Kansas in round 2.  I couldn't miss that, right?  Waking up five hours after the season ended to catch a 6am flight to fly to Kansas City to watch Tom Cockle take on Kansas wasn't pleasant.

Biggest Bust: Gerald Brown.  At least Brewington gave us some spurts.  Take away the Michigan game from November of his sophomore year and Brown did as little as a top 70 kid could do at Providence.  I still remember his stat line from Hargrave: 69% from the field, 88% from the FT line. 

Best Recruiting Class: Timmy's best haul turned out to be one withou a single top 200 kid.  Gomes-Sanders-Kotti in the infamous "if Julius Hodge had only chosen Syracuse" class. 

Worst Recruiting Class:  SI spent a year with the PC staff in their pursuit of the Ice Robinson/DeSean White/Rob McIver/Randall Hanke/Quinton Hosely/Anthony Ivory/Charlie Burch group that stood out for the "how could they miss with so many chances" angle. 

Still, I'm going to go with Welsh's third to last group of Brian McKenzie, Ray Hall and Jamal Barney.  That's about as bad as you'll see at the Big East level.  At least McIver and Hosley could play.

From the article:

"We've got to have DeSean White," Steve DeMeo said into the phone.

A Decade of Friar Basketball: Part I

Part I of my look back on a decade of Friar basketball. In the 90's Providence won the Big East tournament in '94 and came within an overtime of the Final Four in 1997. 11 former Friars from the 1990s played in the NBA. How many Friars from the past decade made it? One. It can be done at Providence as the 90's proved, but as the past decade taught us, it isn't easy.

All 2000 First Team:

PG: John Linehan: all time NCAA leader in steals gets the top spot on defense alone. Two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, a game changing defensive player who single handedly took teams out of their offense. A limited playmaker with a non-existent jumper when he came to Providence, Linehan shot 41% from 3 in 2001. Made 33 consecutive free throws to start his PC career. No one rattled an opposing point guard better (see: Cook, Omar). We may never see a breath-taking defensive guard like him again. Does anyone remember that he played with Ryan Gomes for a season?

SG: Weyinmi Efejuku: Gets the nod over Mills thanks to a leap his senior year and an injury to Abdul Mills. If Mills plays his senior season he’s part of two tournament teams and puts up similar, if not better, numbers than Efejuku. 12th all time scorer in PC history who was the catalyst on a 19 team win a year ago.

SF: Rob Sanders: Ouch. In a telling sign of how the past decade went in Providence, Sanders lands himself the nod here. Erron Maxey was a 4 and only played one season this decade, so he’s out. Would have been Rome Augustin’s spot (10 ppg, 40% 3s his sophomore year) had he not gotten injured. The old floor in Alumni didn’t do Tim Welsh any favors.

PF: Ryan Gomes: Clear cut player of the decade. First team All American, all time leading scorer in Providence history, the only Friar to play in the NBA in the decade (sadly), and quietly 5th all time in steals at PC. Not bad for a kid whose biggest thrill in sports was winning the Billy Finn award for best player in Waterbury coming into college. Had the character to match his ability. Everything a Friar fan could ask for.

C: Marcus Douthit: One of three Friars to get drafted in the decade, Douthit went from encouraging freshman on a tournament team to dreadful sophomore. Recovered career from the ashes late in his junior year and controlled the paint well enough senior year to get taken by the Lakers. No one saw it coming two years prior. Complete liability offensively who ended his career second all time in blocks per game at Providence. As important defensively as Gomes was offensively in 2004, he played on both tournament teams in the decade.

Second Team:

PG: Donnie McGrath: edges out Sharaud Curry thanks to a tournament appearance and top ranking in PC history in 3s made, minutes and games started. Tough to forget about his shooting slumps and inability to create.

SG: Abdul Mills: Thought this spot would go to Sheiku Kabba, but upon further investigation of their statistics, it wasn’t even close. Injured during Gomes’ junior year, an often forgotten “What could have been?” at PC. Led the team in scoring in 2001-02, including a 26 point, 8 rebound performance against Boston College playing through a badly injured groin that ended his PC career. Scored 20 points, with 8 assists, on a perfect shooting night: 5-5 FG, 3-3 3PT, 7-7 FT against Virginia Tech his sophomore season.

SF: Dwight Brewington: Another sign of the times moment. I spent a few minutes comparing Brewington to Tuukka Kotti and then wondering if I could really consider Tuukka a 3. Brewington’s early season sophomore surge was enough to get him a 2nd team nod. Sad. Brewington is left wondering why he isn’t listed at the 2nd team point guard.

PF: Geoff McDermott: Didn’t do himself any favors with his senior season. A bump in production ala Douthit, McGrath or Herb Hill and Friar fans remember him differently. Peaked with an 18, 16, and 5 in a surprising Thanksgiving Eve win over Boston College his sophomore year.

C: Herb Hill: A senior year that seemingly sprung out of nowhere had to have Gomes wondering where this kid was when he played with him for a couple of seasons. A double-double machine his senior season capped with monster performances against Syracuse (29, 15, 8 blocks) and South Florida (28, 16, and 6 blocks) to close out the season. From deer in headlights to NBA draft pick – a shocking turn. The tournament appearances and early production from Douthit keep Herb off of the first team.

Game of the Year: January 5, 2004 - Providence vs. Texas. With all due respect to last year's win over #1 Pittsburgh the Dunk never rocked in the past decade like it did in the Friars' overtime loss to Texas. This game had it all. Rick Barnes making his return to Providence, Gomes emerging as a star, and an up and coming Friar team that had already defeated Deron Williams and Illinois, would-be Elite 8 Alabama, and smacked down Virginia on the road.

Need more? Providence was ranked for the first time in 3 years and came back from a 32-11 deficit to take a 77-74 lead in the waning seconds when a loose ball rolled to the feet of a wide-open Royal Ivey who calmly drilled a 3 to send the game to overtime. By the time Donnie McGrath's heel-grazing the end line 3 pointer tied it with three seconds to go in overtime a sweat-filled Dunk (why was it so hot in there that night?) shook with joy. After a timeout, Texas' power forward PJ Tucker went the length of the floor and laid it in at the buzzer, leading to a good 10 minute review by the refs. Texts messages were flying into fans from friends watching from home and when the hoop was ruled good the crowd lost it.

Fans littered the court with trash in a scene from the WWE and a Texas player nearly rushed the stands after taking a bottle to the dome. Texas guard Brandon Mouton noted, "This game was huge for us. It was huge in terms of getting national respect." Beating Providence in 2004 meant national respect. That is the difference between this game and the Pitt win. Providence was a team on the rise and fans knew it. The Dunk was alive in 2004 for the first time in years. The buzz was back in Providence and the Friars went on to thrash defending national champ Syracuse and would-be national champ Connecticut in the next month.

Rick Barnes said, "Coming back here was more emotional than I thought it would be." You're telling us, Rick. When I left the Dunk I found my car had been broken into. PC lost on a ridiculous shot after a 10 minute review, my car got broken into while I was there and it was my best experience at the Dunk in the past decade. Now, that is a great game.



Worst Game: March 2, 2004 - #12 Providence gets crushed by #6 Pittsburgh. Somewhere Brown fans are outraged. As pathetic a loss as the Brown one was four years ago, nothing hurt like this one. As a friend wrote, "My hands hurt after the pregame introductions. My stomach hurt by halftime."

The 20-5 Friars were looking at a potential #1 seed in the Big East Tournament and simply never recovered from this one, losing 88-61. "Losing" is putting it mildly. The physical play of Chris Taft and Chevy Troutman was overwhelming. Gomes was limited to three rebounds and Donnie McGrath went scoreless.

Providence lost their season finale against an underrated BC team (Craig Smith and Jared Dudley), then was upset by another underrated foe, Villanova (Randy Foye, Allen Ray, Curtis Sumpter), and had no confidence by the time their first round tournament game rolled around. Pacific rolled over PC and the Friars have been looking for that 2004 Dunk rejuvenation since.

Low Blow of the Decade: St. John's point guard Omar Cook on Sheiku Kabba. Remember when we talked about Linehan rattling opposing point guards? Omar Cook was a stud out of NYC, a one and done kid, but he wasn't all there, let's be honest.

Linehan hounded the freshman, flustering him to the point where he took it out on Linehan's backup, Sheiku Kabba, with a sharp elbow to Kabba's groin. Kabba went down in a heap, Cook got a technical, and my roommate was on SportsCenter that night jumping up and down holding his groin, feeling Kabba's pain. Why we didn't tape it is beyond me.

Cook ended the day 2-10 with a measly three assists and was nothing more than a Summer League pro.  A picture from this game this hangs in the hallway of Alumni Hall.

Worst Play of the Decade: Rob Sanders' "Look at Me!" Dunk.  Fans lost it when Sanders threw the basketball off of the backboard to himself on a 1-0 breakaway, IN THE 2ND HALF OF A CLOSE POSTSEASON game.  I sat in my seat shaking my head, waiting for Welsh to yank him for the stunt. 

Part II Coming Soon

The Most Disturbing Trend

For the third time this season Providence has given up 50 points in the paint.  The 64 against Boston College was ridiculous, the 50 in the George Washington game concerning, but 50 against Yale?  Expect this site to continue to beat the "we need a shot blocker drum" until Providence lands themselves a legit shot blocker.  50 points in the paint before the Big East season even starts is troubling. 

James Still has his share of supporters in Friartown, with some comparing him to Marcus Douthit, but by December of his freshman year Douthit had already won the Big East Rookie of the Week award (I'm starting to sound like a much bigger Marcus fan than I really was).  This isn't to say that Still won't turn out to be a better player than Douthit at the end of the day, but this team has no interior defensive presence this year and with two guards and Ron Giplaye, who is more likely to muscle than swat, PC could be looking at back to back seasons in which they don't have a center to protect the paint.

I'm thrilled to have Gerard Coleman and Joe Young coming and love the offensive potential of them joining Council, Brooks, and Peterson, but the reason why this won't be a potential tournament team even next season is an inability to take away easy looks at the basket.  Experience will help the present crop, but unless Still or Batts make the jump or they bring in a springy big man prior to next season this will be a team that entertains offensively, but frustrates defensively.

Yale Notes:

• With a buck thirty left in the first half and PC trailing by 4 a genius at the Dunk determined it was an opportune time to play "Should I Stay or Should I Go."  Don't give the Dunk crowd any ideas.
• How ugly was the first half?  With Ray Hall suiting up for the first time all season a guy in front of me yelled over to the next section "they should bring in Ray Hall.  The crowd will go nuts and it will light a fire under them."  I shrugged and for a moment thought, "the last 30 seconds of the half couldn't kill us.  It might kill poor Ray, but we need a spark."  Ah, the thought pattern when Yale is running you.
• Watching lifeless games you start to look for that one kid who determines "enough is enough" and plays hard even though his teammates aren't.  Back in 2003 Rob Sanders was benched for Timmy's infamous 'poor practice habits' line (apparently, Maris Laksas was a workout warrior) and when he was inserted into a blowout he really got after it in the final four minutes.   I spent this game hoping someone would have a Rob Sanders "this is pathetic, I'm going to play really hard to show the coach that at least someone has a pulse" moment.  While not as blatant, Vincent Council brought back some of those memories.  The kid has grit and we'll see more of it once he asserts himself more.
• Is Greedy going to get away with those double pump layups when the Big East schedule starts?  URI stuffed those a few times.
• Once in a while Brian McKenzie gets the ball 28 feet from the basket and figures "what the hell?  I hit this in practice once" leading to a long rebound and break every time.
• The 'bench Curry' crowd is going to be rumbling louder after tonight.

Live from Barrington, RI: Day 2 of the St. Andrew's Holiday Classic

Coming into this weekend my focus was on the future - the distant future - with super sophs Ricky Ledo and Khem Birch (both top 25 in the class of 2012 and Friar targets) in the St. Andrew's Holiday Classic.  As always when taking in prep games, an unheralded kid's game jumps out at you.

Last February at the National Prep School Invitational I had the names of two kids highlighted: Chris Gaston (Fordham) and Hassan Whiteside (Marshall).

In reporting back on the weekend I commented on how Gaston was an active, but undersized (6-7, 210) 3/4 hybrid that would have sent Friar fans up the wall had he committed here, due to being the dreaded combo forward and because of his national ranking, but he would have been the type of active body the Friars could use on the glass this year.  Gaston was the only reason New Hampton stayed reasonably close against Vincent Council and the Patterson School.  I came to see Council and Evan Smotrycz and rushed home to see if Gaston had committed.

Fast forward 10 months and Gaston is averaging 19 and 12 with 2.5 blocks for Fordham, with the highlight being a 32 point, 15 rebound game against St. John's (we'll ignore the 7 turnovers and the 4.4 TOs per game for argument's sake). 

Council's teammate, Whiteside, is the Marcus Douthit type that the Friars are lacking.  A long kid with great shot blocking potential who, according to all reports, had a ways to go offensively and physically (215 lbs).  On a team stacked with D1 studs, the two kids who were consistently solid were the future Friar point guard and the 6'11 Whiteside.

Fast forward 10 months and Whiteside is averaging 5 blocks a game at Marshall, with his personal bests coming in a 17-14-11 game in his most recent outing and a 14-17-9 against Ohio earlier in the season.  Oh, and he's shooting 61% from the field. 

The latest unheralded prep to keep an eye on is Winchendon's Eric Ferguson.  Unfortunately, the 6'8 do-it-all scorer is already committed to Georgia Southern, but he was, by far, the best player I saw today on a Winchendon team that is among the best in the country.

How does a kid like this fall under the radar?  According to Jeff Goodman, he was spare part at Winchendon until late in the season a year ago and didn't join the AAU summer circuit, opting to go to summer school.  Goodman labels Ferguson as "the ultimate steal" and after seeing him today I couldn't argue.  He dominated in a blowout win over Marianapolis.

The 2012 Targets -

Now that I've spent half of this article singing the praises of underrated kids, let's spend the second half of it talking about two players who PC will have to beat out the biggest names in the country to land.

Khem Birch (11th nationally per ESPN): The athleticism was obvious early and the 6'9 sophomore started on a team featuring frontcourt studs Markus Kennedy (Villanova), Ferguson, and Angel Nunez (top 50 junior).  Unfortunately, Birch was pulled early and was spotted icing his knee for the rest of the game, so all I saw was an early dunk and rebound.  Winchendon versus Brewster (February 2 at Winchendon) is going to be a tremendous game.

Ricky Ledo (13th nationally per ESPN): Been dying to see Ricky in action and what I saw was a sophomore with a world of ability and plenty of room to grow.  The strength of his game is clearly the jumper.  Ledo possesses a great touch from beyond the arc and as a 6'5 sophomore he could turn into a great scorer if he grows another two inches.  Combine additional size with better ball handling skills, and a firmer grasp on how to find himself shots and you've got yourself quite a player.  When he was open and squared up, he hit from 3.

Still, he didn't dominate a Boston Trinity Academy team (NEPSAC Class D) that a top 20 player nationally should.  My unofficial stat book had him at 18 points on 6-12 FG (3-8 from 3), 3-5 FT. 

Ledo reminds me of Rudy Gay (not just physically) in how you can see all of the physical tools are there, you just wonder when he'll put it all together.  That was the question on Gay heading into the draft.  Like Gay, he projects to be a long kid with a great jumper and good athleticism (had a great tomahawk dunk in the final 3 minutes), but he isn't great off of the dribble yet.  I don't know if he'll ever be great off of the dribble, but could turn into a Rudy Gay type, great shooting athlete.

In comparison to Alex Murphy, Ledo has more athletic ability, but Murphy comes off as the more polished player at this point in regards to passing and decision making.  What jumped out this week in seeing Ledo, Murphy, and Kaleb Tarczewski is that it takes a special sophomore to dominate at this level.

Additional Notes -

Loyola Marymount commit, and Winchendon point guard, Anthony Ireland is a good one.  I sat next to a D1 head man who sounded really impressed with his quickness and passing ability.  I liked his game a lot.  Ireland is coming off of a strong summer splitting the point guard position with Naadir Tharpe and the New England Playaz.  He's quick, an above average passer and a good shooter.  What's not to like?

Nova commit Markus Kennedy continues the Wildcats transition from smurf ball.  He's a big boy.

Stat Stuffing by Gerard Coleman, Brewster Improves to 12-1

Gerard Coleman bounced back from a subpar performance against Brewster to lead Tilton past Kimball Union Academy in a 67-57 win.

GC put out a thick stat line: 23 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds, and 5 steals.  The game marked the end of six road games to open the season for Marcus O'neil's Rams.

Brewster Continues to Roll -

Is it too late to get back in on the Mo Walker sweepstakes?  The Canadian big man (and I mean BIG) led Brewster with 26 points and 17 rebounds in a 97-91 win against National College Prep (CA).  Naadir Tharpe added 14 points and 9 assists.

Brewster is now off until January 9 when they take on New Hampton (Evan Smotrycz, Jordan Laguerre), while Tilton plays National College Prep tonight before returning to action on the 9th as well.

Live from Groton, MA: Lawrence Academy vs. St. Mark's

Made the short ride to Groton to check out a handful of noteworthy preps in this clash of NEPSAC Class C powers.

St. Mark's is the two time defending Class C champion with a scary front line, including Nate Lubick (Georgetown), Melsahn Basabe (Siena), and steller sophs Alex Murphy and Kaleb Tarczewski.  Both sophomores are Friar targets and among the most highly sought after players in the class of 2012.

Lawrence Academy attacks in a different way.  Their explosive backcourt of Shabazz Napier and Denzel Brito looks to be the best in Class C. 

I spotted Friar assistant Pat Skerry in attendance, along with Adam Ginsburg of UMass, and a coach from Georgetown who I believe to be Kenya Hunter.

In a game of contrasting styles, with huge runs in an action-packed back and forth second half LA pulled out a 76-72 win behind their scoring force at point guard.  More on Napier later.

Player Impressions:

Nate Lubick: Impossible not to like Nate if you're a true basketball fan.  A sturdy 6'8 power forward, Lubick is an above average rebounder, really good passer for a kid his size, is really nifty around the basket, hits his free throws, and is as humble as you'll see from a kid ranked in the 30s nationally in every major publication.  With his passing skills he should be a great fit in JTIII's system.  The type of kid PC fans should hope to get, from both a talent and demeanor standpoint in the future.

Denzel Brito: Don't believe the hype.  This was my third time seeing Brito and I've yet to see a Big East level guard.  Good build and athleticism and an underrated passer, but the shot isn't what it was supposed to be, which could make life difficult for a 6'2 shooting guard.  Give me Duke Mondy over him any day.

Basabe: So this is how Siena does it.  A springy 6'8 kid who does all of his work under the basket and plays with a lot of aggression.  Lawrence led by 7 at the half, by 10 with under 4 minutes to go, but Basabe willed St. Mark's back into this one by dominating an undersized LA froncourt.  Lubick and Basabe fouled out LA's top two post defenders.  If this one went to overtime, which it looked like it might up until the final five seconds, LA would have been in trouble.  Basabe got offers from Big East schools, but it was too little too late and he was off to Fran McCaffery and the Saints.  Too bad for the Big East.

Alex Murphy: All of the tools are there.  A heady passer, good shooter, and looked to be slightly taller than Lubbick already.  Murphy deferred his game to Basabe and Lubick and didn't put up a big stat line, but he's so skilled for a kid his age and size.

Kaleb Tarczewski: With the attention he is getting I expected him to play more.  He's in a bit of a minute crunch playing behind the two senior big men, but the one thing that stands out is his jumper.  They just don't make 6'11 sophomores with a jumper as soft as his.  Hit both free throws he took and swished a 17 footer.  There wasn't enough of a sampling tonight to get a true read on his rebounding and defensive abilities, and those will obviously continue to develop as he does.

The Great Point Guard Debate:

A week ago no one was pushing for Shabazz Napier to Providence more than I.  The kid is an absolutely explosive scorer with a good handle and great range on his jumper.  The play-making ability was still a question after seeing him last February, but Providence hasn't brought in a guard who can put 9-12 points on the board in a minute and a half span like Napier can in what seems like forever.

Then I saw Naadir Tharpe.  Ignore what Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury turned out to be and take a trip back to 1996 with me.

We're approaching the 1996 NBA draft and two point guards are the headliners: Georgetown's sophomore scoring lead man Allen Ezail Iverson and Georgia Tech's freshman Stephon Xavier Marbury.

Iverson was the flashy scoring guard, capable of going off for 40 on any given night, a pest on defense who wasn't a great 1:1 defender, but got his hands on a lot of balls due to speed and aggression.  His play making skills were brought into question, but the pro-AI crowd swore that given the right cast he would be less of a shooter and more of scorer with the ability to create.



Stephon Marbury was more of a creator who scored.  Hubie Brown on Steph: "He has a great feel for the game, he gets everyone involved.  He can score, shoot the 3s, and make the pass in traffic."  Then Steph cried on camera - who would have guessed?



One more note from this clip - Steph on point guards: " A leader. Someone who is going to make everyone around him better.  Sacrifice... do everything that it takes to win."

I digress.

Want to know if you are pro-Napier or Tharpe?  If you were an AI fan in 96 Napier is your guy.  If you felt more comfortable with the true point guard like Marbury then Naadir is your man.

Napier is the home run hitter.  A player capable of putting up back to back 3s, then pressuring full court, picking up a steal and layup and completely turning a game around.   He did that tonight against St. Mark's.  LA led by 7 at the half, St. Mark's stormed out of the lockerroom and looked to take control of the game and then Napier harrassed the point guard into turnovers, rained down a few 3 pointers, and attacked the basket when the opportunity arose.

He did force the action at times and turn the ball over more than you'd like, but it was difficult to leave the gym tonight not excited about his scoring potential.  He worked harder on defense than I anticipated.

When asked to compare the two I'd say Napier can get you back into a game, or blow a game open single-handedly, whereas Tharpe is going to make his teammates a lot better.  He's a great passer and decision maker.

If Providence ends up with either of these kids fans should be thrilled, but if you're the type who needs to pull for one over the other you now have options.

Oh, and then there's the less heralded Stevie Taylor who I know absolutely nothing about other than he seems to be Friar fans' 3rd choice.  The third point guard taken in 1996? 

Brewster vs. Tilton Highlights

A highlight reel that Brewster's team manager uploaded this afternoon.  Naadir Tharpe (#10) throws two incredible passes:

• A halfcourt one hand bounce pass (25 second mark)
• The ridiculous spin move, over the shoulder pass that I reference in my game review (50 second mark)

Tharpe and Coleman together could change the game in Providence.

Judgment Day comes early for Keno

"I think if Coach K had that start in his career now, he wouldn't have made it.  I think the microwave culture we've got now, where coaches are fired after a couple of years... he wouldn't have survived — and look what everybody would have missed." - Jay Bilas

Providence lost to Iona when I was in New Hampshire checking out the future.  Maybe I would be much more upset and concerned about the direction of this program under Keno Davis if I had been there, but I doubt it.  From the start this season has been about finding pieces that could play major minutes on a tournament team in two years.  And yes, a tournament appearance prior to the 2011-12 season would be a surprise.  This is a 14-16 win team with a 7-4 record.  Seems about right.

Let's look at the facts:

In year one Keno's Friars went 19-14 with a 10-8 record in a Big East conference with four of the top six teams nationally (final AP poll), six of the top 25, and four 2009 lottery picks. 

He had inherited a 15-16 (6-12 BE) team.  Not a single Friar was even named honorable mention All Big East and they beat a Syracuse team starting two McDonald's All Americans and, of course, #1 Pittsburgh.

Yet, the loss to Iona, coming off of a night in which his team scored 110 on George Washington, but barely kept the Colonials under 100 led to murmurs of Keno ball not working at the Big East level.  Welcome to Providence, my friend.

We can only judge Keno Davis off of what we've seen to date, but in reality it simply isn't fair to judge his coaching acumen until year three, at the earliest.

Bruce Pearl and John Thompson III, coaches who had immediate success when taking over rebuilding schools, are the exception to the rule, not the norm.

Need proof?

• Jim Calhoun's Big East record in his first three years: 3-13, 4-12,  6-10
• John Thompson's first two seasons at Georgetown: 12-14, 13-13
• Coach K went 17-13, 10-17, 11-17 in his first three years at Duke
• Al Skinner? 15-16, 6-21, 11-19 to kick off his career at BC
• Billy Donovan: 13-17 and 14-15 to start his career at Florida
• Back to back 15-14 seasons kicked off Tom Crean's career at Marquette.

3 hall of famers, 7 national titles and 20 Final Fours among this group.  Skinner is the winningest coach in BC history (shh, don't tell Eagle fans - they think they deserve better) and has made the tournament in 6 of the last 8 years. 

It wasn't long ago, 2004 to be precise, when Providence fans laughed off the coaching ability of Jay Wright.  You remember these days.  The Friars had just finished polishing off Villanova, in their house, 100-74 and the popular refrain was "he can recruit, but he's a poor game coach." 

It was tough to argue in 2004.  Wright was in his third year at Villanova, his second season with the killer crop of Foye-Sumpter-Fraser-Ray and he went 7-9 in the Big East in year 1, 15-16 overall with those great freshman in year 2, and when PC pasted them at home he was on his way to a 6-10 conference record.

Five years later and Wright is overseeing a basketball empire and Providence fans are raising questions about a coach who is 7-4 with a roster of 8 players who never played D1 basketball until November.

I can't imagine what life would be like on Smith Hill if Keno ever brought in the Foye/Sumpter crew and was four games under .500 in conference play after two years.  How much noise would Keno hear if he went 6-21 and 11-19 in years 2 and 3 as Skinner did at BC? 

Are the questions about Keno's defense fair?  Probably, but it's also fair to say that the defense will improve once he starts bringing in higher quality athletes.  Doc Rivers wasn't clueless defensively when he coached Ricky Davis and Gerald Green and he didn't become the league's best defensive coach once he acquired Kevin Garnett.

The other thing about coaches: they improve.  Much like the players they coach, they learn from mistakes, but they have to be given time to make them.  The one thing that Keno Davis and his staff have proven over the past year and a half is that they are willing to work. 

Will Keno make it here as a coach?  Will he consistently bring in the players necessary to complete in the Big East?  Will the defense improve over what we've seen to date?  It's impossible to say at this point, but if history is any indicator we won't know for another two years.

Call it a hunch, call it the "anyone is better than TW hangover", call it "this guy won 10 Big East games while starting Jeff Xavier and his 30% 3 point percentage, 6'5 grounded center Jon Kale and no bench?" syndrome, but the guess here is he is the right man for the job.

Live from the Brewster Invitational: Day 2

“How is he ranked in the 60’s? He’s better right now than Will Barton.”

   - Jonathon Givony, President/Director of Scouting, Draft Express on Gerard Coleman.

Apparently, Providence fans weren't the only ones who caught wind of this quote.  After a 110-70 lashing of Tilton today, Brewster star Will Barton and Brewster Academy's twitter pages were lighting up with Barton noting, "Just blew Tilton out had 34 tonight shut down gerard coleman, thanks for the motivation frm Jonathon Givony President/Director of Scouting Draft Express, for saying he was better then me."

As much as I want Gerard Coleman to shine, there was no denying that Barton was the best player in the gym today.  For as good as Coleman was on Friday night he was equally poor on Saturday (12 points).  He turned the ball over, forced bad shots, and ran into multiple defenders every time he drove to the paint.

This wasn't Coleman's day from the start.  Speaking of starting, he didn't.  He entered the game with Tilton down 8-3 and within minutes it quickly ballooned to 15-3.  It was never a game.  Tilton was overwhelmed by Brewster's talent and trailed 53-27 at halftime, much to the delight of the Brewster crowd.

Coleman didn't see the floor until the 13 minute mark of the 2nd half and was pulled after two or three minutes.  His coach strode to the end of the bench and laid into him in a way that would have made Bobby Knight proud. 

With four high-major D1 wings, a star point guard, and 6'10, 270 lb Mo Walker dominating in the paint I sat there wondering how the same Notre Dame Prep team that lost to Tilton on Friday took this team to overtime. 

Impressions:

Coleman: This is my fourth time catching him and it was by far his worst effort.  Between coming off of the bench (i.e. was something else going on there?), Barton out for blood, a collapsing defense, and trying to do to much to carry teammates that honestly weren't up for the challenge, he wasn't himself today and really struggled.  I watched the two teams in warmups and said to myself, "This almost looks unfair."

A disappointing effort, but here's hoping that he channels the disappointment and Tweets and uses it as motivation.  No reason to panic at all, it was just one of those days.

Barton: Supremely talented and equally brash.  There isn't anything he can't do offensively and his size really affected Coleman today.  Little doubt about where he'll be playing in a few years.  Well deserving of his national acclaim.

Naadir Tharpe: As an unabashed Shabazz Napier fan I came into this game interested to see how Tharpe compared.  They are completely different players.  Napier is a high volume scorer who is likely to go off for 40 on any given night, while Tharpe is as good a passer as you'll see at the high school level.

Stronger than he looks, a better shooter than I anticipated, and a good on-ball defender, my sense is his stock will only grow over the next year.  Tharpe seemed chummy with Coleman in the pregame.  The play of the game came when he spun around a defender in the open court and immediately threw a pass over his shoulder to an oncoming teammate.  The place lost it.

The complete package at point guard and cause for celebration if Providence can land him.  With so much talent on this roster his box scores won't wow you, but this site now has a number 1 target and will follow his recruitment closely.  I want this kid at Providence badly, but things already seem to be heating up with Indiana, Arizona State, Georgetown, Arizona, BC, and others now in the mix.

Ron Giplaye: In an overtime win over Maine Central, Giplaye bounced back from a subpar game on Friday night.  He went toe to toe with URI recruit Levan Shengalia, a wide 6'9, 263 lb center out of the Republic of Georgia.  The matchup got very testy as an aggravated Giplaye shoved him in the back at one point.  I wondered if a fight would break out initially and then I wondered how the refs completely missed it and didn't T him up.  Shengelia got his revenge in the 2nd half with an (inadvertant) elbow to Giplaye's temple.

Stats are unavailable at this point, but I counted 7 or 8 offensive rebounds and 5 or 6 times in which he hit the deck in this one.  He's not quite the springy athlete I had him pegged as a year ago and at this point I'd imagine he would be below Bilal Dixon on the depth chart.

Shengelia was impressive.  While he doesn't look the part, he makes up for a lack of athletic ability with guile and skills.  If his athletic ability is not his undoing he could be a nice piece for URI.  His size proved to be a handful for Giplaye who is every bit 240 pounds.

Mo Walker was a kid PC was mentioned with briefly.  He's a monster.  Ray Hall size with athleticism.

Melvin Ejim (Iowa State) did nothing to make me wish he came to Providence, while CJ Fair (Syracuse) flashed great athletic ability on both ends of the court.

Weekend takeaways:

Coleman will be ready to step in and play from day 1.  He looked outmatched on Saturday, but I couldn't help but wonder how Barton would have fared if you put Coleman on Brewster and him on Tilton.  After seeing this Tilton team in person I am even more impressed with the job Marcus O'neil has done there to keep them competitive with Class A teams and also with the responsibility Coleman has this year.  No disrespect to the rest of their roster, but they are competing with rosters full of D1 kids.

Giplaye has fan favorite potential for his willingness to mix it up and hit the deck.  He's a good offensive rebounder and finishes well enough around the basket.  More explosion and a face up jumper would be a big boost.  Certainly won't back down from anyone.

Can't say enough about Tharpe.  If Keno is going to land him I'd guess he better plan on doing it sooner rather than later.

Here are highlights from Brewster's romp over Rise Academy last month.  (Barton #5, Tharpe #10, CJ Fair #11, Ejim #30, Mo Walker #12)

Live from Wolfboro, NH: Gerard Coleman versus Ron Giplaye

It would take a lot to get me to Wolfboro, New Hampshire on a 22 degree night in early December.  Gerard Coleman and Tilton taking on Ron Giplaye and Notre Dame Prep was plenty.  Coleman made sure the two hour plus ride was worth it.  The future Friar was sensational in an exciting 78-77 win over Notre Dame. 

Setting the stage:

Brewster Academy is hosting a four team invitational this weekend with Brewster and Maine Central in the opener and Tilton and Notre Dame in the second game on Friday night. 

This weekend will provide a big test for Coleman and Tilton.  As a Class B NEPSAC school they are only allowed four post-graduate players, as opposed to Class A teams that often feature teams with anywhere from 7-12 D1 players on their roster and have unlimited postgrads. 

When Tilton won the National Prep Championship a year ago it was considered a shock.  And that was with a McDonald's All American in Alex Oriakhi and fellow UConn Huskie freshman Jamal Coombs-McDaniel.  Both players are gone and this is truly's Coleman's show.  After watching them on Friday night I can't imagine they have more than three D1 players on that roster (Coleman, freshman Goodluck Okonoboh, and Ryan Canty).  Coleman is the only returning player from last year's championship team with D1 plans.

While Giplaye's Notre Dame Prep plays NEPSAC schools regularly they are actually an independent, featuring a roster full of seniors.  In addition to Giplaye, Notre Dame features UConn recruit Cleveland Melvin, an explosive 6'8 leaper who impressed, and Memphis commit Antonio Barton, the brother of Brewster's Will Barton.  The last I checked ESPN had ND Prep ranked as the 4th rated prep team nationally with 11 projected D1 kids.

And the hosts?  All Brewster has is Will Barton (#5 nationally according to ESPN), Syracuse commit CJ Fair (#59 per ESPN), two high major 6'10, 250 lb plus big men in Mo Walker (Kansas, Pitt, Georgetown in the running) and Richard Peters (Oklahoma), a top 60 junior point guard (and Friar target) in Naadir Tharpe, and a couple of D1 wings with Melvin Ejim (Iowa State) and Austin Carroll (Rutgers, son of former Celtics head coach John Carroll).  This roster is good for a #2 ranking nationally on ESPN.  And that might be short changing them.

That's a really long-winded way of saying that Gerard Coleman and Tilton would have their hands full this weekend.

ND Prep versus Tilton:

Thanks to traffic, poor Mapquest directions, gas attendants who weren't much help, and being the last man on Earth without a gps I showed up for the game with 13 minutes to go in the first half as Coleman made a tough layup to tie the game at 19.

The final ten minutes of the first half featured little from Giplaye and a few nice drives by Coleman, but not enough to keep ND Prep from racing out to a 36-28 halftime lead.  NDP was allowed to get out in the open court and attack and during those final 10 minutes it looked like they just had too much depth for Tilton.

Here were my halftime notes:

• Quiet Giplaye
• Coleman attracting a ton of attention
• Feels like the game is on the verge of getting away from Tilton - first five minutes will be huge.  Gut check time for Coleman - does he come out aggressive?

What became evident very early was Tilton's reliance on Coleman.  Coming into this weekend I had underrated the difference in depth between ND Prep and Tilton.  With Friars playing for both teams I wasn't pulling for one team over the other, but I found myself hoping Tilton could make an early run in the 2nd half as it felt like a game that was slipping away at the end of 1.

Insert amazing second half by Coleman here.

On the first play of the second half Coleman grabbed a steal in the fullcourt press and converted a tough layup.  A minute and a half later he threw down a dunk to make it a one point game.  Did he come out aggressively?  You bet.  An eight point lead was gone instantly.

My notes read like a Gerard Coleman highlight reel:

• Coleman fouled shooting jumper with 16 mins to play... Coleman steal to make it 40-39... slick right handed reverse (he's a lefty) to put Tilton up 1... kid could be a terror in a full court press..  he just answered my halftime questions.
• 13:00: GC is holding the ball out, palming it in one hand while scanning the defense.  Who's the last guard to do that at PC?  As I write that he put the ball on the floor for a quick layup.  Tilton now up 49-42 with 13:00 minutes to go.  What a turn around.

And notes from the final 10 minutes:

• 9:00 - tough and-1 by GC fading on a 12 footer to tie it at 58.
• 61-58 Tilton.  Why isn't Giplaye playing?
• 5:30 Nice floater by GC with 5:30 left - they can't keep him out of the paint.   We have a player.  Tilton leads 67-63.
• 4:30 Coleman to the basket, 69-63.
• 3:58 GC grabs an offensive board, gets fouled and hits both.  71-66 Tilton.
• 76-73 with a minute to go.  GC hits both free throws to put Tilton up 5.  He has played the entire 2nd half.
• ND misses layup with 3 seconds to go and misses three point heave at buzzer!  Tilton survives 78-77.

In Summary:

Gerard Coleman: the notes speak for themselves, but he was a complete force in the second half.  He missed the only 3 I saw him take, but he got to the basketball at will to the point where I would have questioned why he didn't continue going inside if he started shooting jumpers. 

I get the sense the jumper is a bit of a work in progress, but ND Prep, again #4 nationally, could do absolutely nothing to keep him out of the paint.  I find myself torn between wanting to spread the word about what a player PC has, while also tempering the expectations of fans who will expect the second coming of Kobe Bryant.  He was the clear cut best player on the court and willed Tilton to a win tonight.

I'll summarize his game this way: those Friar fans who like Vincent Council are going to love Coleman.  He simply blows by people off of the dribble and when paired with Council the Friars will have two guards who live in the paint.  He's absolutely the real deal: as good as it gets off of the bounce and effective finishing at the basket with an array of leaners and nifty layups.  If the jump shot ever joins the party he could be scary.

Ron Giplaye: Without knowing who Ron Giplaye was I highlighted his name when I saw him at URI last February and asked "Who is this kid?" Tonight, I came in fully aware of him and questioned where he was.  Literally.

He might have had a solid first 8 minutes for all I know, but from the time I got there I don't believe he converted a field goal.  In my halftime notes I wrote of how he had a quiet first half and how I hoped he'd emerge in the second.  He barely played in the 2nd half, heading to the bench two or three minutes into the half and never seeing the court again.

In another twist of irony, when I discovered Giplaye a year ago I was there to watch Johnnie Lacy.  After a poor first half Lacy was benched by NDP coach Ryan Hurd and I came away seeing about as much of Lacy as I did Giplaye tonight. 

I liked the kid too much a year ago to draw any conclusions from this game, but on this night he had no impact.

Others:  Ryan Canty is a better athlete than he looks.  He blocked two or three shots in the first half and seemed to have good timing defensively, but his playing time was limited in the second.  He has a good build and the aforementioned athleticism, but probably has some work to do to play at the Big East level.

Goodluck Okonoboh: Cousin of UConn frosh Alex Oriahki hung tough for a freshman playing against D1 ready big men.  Certainly worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Cleveland Melvin: Sorry, Friar fans.  UConn found another good one.  Plays a lot bigger than his 6'8, 195 pound frame.  Great athlete with a lot of bounce.

Notes:

• Brewster slaughtered MCI, 72-44 tonight and faces Tilton tomorrow at 4.  Will Barton versus Gerard Coleman is a headline, but the story will be the depth of Brewster's roster. 
• Coleman's final stat line: 32 points, 6 rebounds.
• New Hampshire Friar fans should head to Brewster Saturday for what should be a good afternoon of basketball.  Giplaye and ND Prep take on MCI in the afternoon tilt and you can get an initial impression of Naadir Tharpe while watching Tilton trying to pull a monster upset.

Searching for Marcus Douthit

One of the biggest misses of the Tim Welsh era came after the 2005-06 season.  A local shooter out of Manhattan had just lit up Maryland to the tune of 31 points in the NIT.  The kid grew up in Pawtucket, dreamed of coming to PC, and everyone was thrilled when Jeff Xavier transferred in.

Everyone but me at least.  Not with Shawn James transferring out of Northeastern.  You might remember James, the America East Rookie and Defensive Player of the Year, averaging 5.4 blocks per game.  A year later he broke an NCAA record by averaging 6.53 blocks per game.  He had over 190 blocks his sophomore season.  Only two Providence teams ever have had that many in a season. And he was available. 

Welsh jumped on the shooting guard, James went to Duquesne (second time I've posted about missing out on a guy who ended up with the Dukes in a week) and an inability to stop anyone spelled the end of Welsh's career at Providence two years later.

Did Welsh not realize what he won with at Providence?  The 2000-01 squad feaured a roster that had been stripped bare after the Prime Time incident and it would have been a long year if Welsh didn't have a defensive dynamo at point guard and two seven footers protecting the paint.  A year after what might have been the most embarrassing season in Providence College history Welsh and an offensively crippled team went dancing. 

Three years later the headliner was Ryan Gomes, but the secret to that team's success was the emergence of Marcus Douthit halfway through his junior season.  Douthit had a year and a half lull beginning in his sophomore year and was on his way out the door until he awoke from his slumber in a win at St. John's in Queens.  Welsh shortened the rotation, played Douthit consistent minutes after benching him previously and the Friars finished 8-3 in their last 11 games.

The next year they peaked at #12 nationally with wins over defending champion Syracuse, Deron Williams and Illinois, and a win over that year's champion, Connecticut.  And they won with defense.  The Illinois game was the most telling.

Illinois featured three NBA guards: Deron Williams, Luther Head, and Dee Brown.  Their frontcourt had two cup of coffee NBA types in Roger Powell and James Augustine.  Illinois shot 30 percent from the field, scored a mere 21 in the second half, and Williams, Head, and Brown combined for 9 points.

They did all of this with a cast of average defenders (at best) protected by Marcus Douthit who blocked six shots and altered countless others.   As important as Gomes was to the offense, Douthit was equally impactful defensively.  When Douthit graduated (with Sheiku Kabba and two non-impact Europeans) Providence went from an 11-5 Big East team to 4-12.  The year after Gomes left the team won one more Big East game.

The point of all of this?  Keno Davis' Friars just scored 110 points on the road with a bunch of guards that he didn't even bring in here.  Only 12 times in Providence history have they scored over 110 points in a game.  Keno's teams are going to score every year he's here, I have no doubt about that.  The key is going to be to find his Douthit, Shabazz, or James. 

Each of those kids were below average offensively.  They were liabilities with the ball in their hands, and couldn't face up and hit an 18 foot jumper if their lives counted on it.  None of them were anything to write home about on the glass either, but with a cast of guards capable of putting up 110 points around them it doesn't matter much.

The development of Greedy in his season away and the dabbling in the John Riek and Carson Desrosiers sweepstakes gives me hope that Keno can develop guys with limited offensive abilities and provides hope that he recognizes the need for a shot blocker.  Shot blockers like Douthit, James, and Shabazz can be found and if Providence is fortunate enough to get a shot blocker of that ilk the defensive liabilities of their teammates will suddenly vanish.  Combine an upper eschelon swatter with this offense and Keno's Friars become scary.

Let's hope Keno realizes what Welsh didn't in 2006.

Note: the top shot blockers in Providence history (career per game) are:

1. Marvin Barnes - 4.08
2. Karim Shabazz - 2.45
3. Marcus Douthit - 2.42

26, 6, 4, & 4: another ho-hum night for Gerard Coleman

Gerard Coleman led Tilton to an easy victory over Phillips Exeter this afternoon with an impressive 26 point, 6 rebound, 4 assist, 4 steal performance.

For the season Coleman is averaging a shade under 27 points per game while leading Tilton to a 3-1 start.  Tilton heads to Brewster this weekend for the Brewster Tournament.

Coleman off to a fast start

Gerard Coleman is off to a great start to his senior season.  After scoring 50 points in his first two games he led Tilton to a big 68-63 win over St. Mark's going off for 31 in the come from behind victory.  St. Mark's, the back to back NEPSAC class C champions, features top 50 senior Nate Lubbick (Georgetown) and Friar targets Alex Murphy and Kaleb Tarczewski.  Tilton is now 2-1 with their lone loss coming on a half court heave at the buzzer against defending class A champs Bridgton Academy.

Here are highlights from Gerard Coleman and his National Prep Championship Tilton School in 2008-09.  The future is wearing #24.  Connecticut freshman Alex Oriakhi (33) and Jamal Coombs-McDaniel (23) are also featured.

URI Takeaway

With eight new players coming in this season and 2.5 returning contributors I made a decision in the preseason: the success of this season won't be based on the won/loss record, but in how many building blocks are in place for 2010-11.  Four would have been a home run, three very pleasing, two would leave Providence another year away from realistic tournament hopes, and a single building block would be disasterous.

Flaws and all, Greedy Peterson was the first to emerge.  He's still a ways away from being trusted with the ball anywhere outside of the paint and rotates slowly on defense, but his development this year has been staggering (show me someone who predicted a couple of 20-10 games at this point in the season and I'll show you a liar).  Providence left the Ryan Center with a loss today, but gained something much more important: the second building block.

I first saw Vincent Council in a national tournament in Springfield starring for the Patterson School (NC) last January.  After catching him twice more in February three characteristics stood out: Council defended, got into the paint at will, and he played with a combination of leadership and toughness that PC has been lacking at point guard for over a decade.  He knew when his teammates needed a push and when to look for his own opportunities.  Here is what I wrote about him in February:

As for Council, he was rock solid. He doesn’t have blow by ability, but he gets to where he needs to be and never tries to do too much. He makes the right passes in almost any situation (being pressed, on the break, in the paint) and is a serviceable outside shooter. He goes right or left with equal ease. His leadership ability and the aforementioned instincts are constantly on display. Instincts like his are sorely lacking with our guards today. Give him Marshon Brooks’ size and athletic ability and he’s an out of this world player. He’s just so steady and a great piece to be adding for the next four years.

For a 10 minute span in the 2nd half the walls were collapsing on PC and there was one kid who determined that Providence wasn't going out without a fight.  Council got into the lane for layups, stepped back from 15 feet, threw a no look pass (okay, that was the 1st half, but a great look), and pushed the tempo at every turn.

The guy sitting next to me commented to his friend, "this kid only knows one speed."  Not true, but he knew that the only way to keep Providence in this game was to attack and keep on attacking.  It's that leadership and basketball IQ that this team has been lacking in recent years. 

Tellingly, when the ball was taken out of his hands and given to upperclassmen Providence often found themselves taking poor shots as the shot clock expired or turning it over on isolation attempts.  There were few occasions in the 2nd half in which Council had the ball in his hands and good things didn't happen.

Was it frustrating to watch Providence get blitzed on the boards by URI or turn it over at the worst possible time late?  Sure, but 2009-10 is about completing the transition from Tim Welsh's core to Keno ball.  If Gerard Coleman is anything he's cracked up to be (and from what I saw a year ago, he is) this is going to be the best PC backcourt in over a decade.

Friarbasketball.net will take a look at Coleman a few times this season and provide in person updates on him whenever possible.

URI Notes:

• Peterson now has 5 double doubles in 8 games and narrowly missed 6 for 8 with an 18&9 performance versus Northeastern.
• The Friars' lack of frontcourt depth has killed them in all three losses this season.  Whenever Alabama needed a big basket late they got the ball inside, BC hammered Providence in the paint all game, and when Bilal Dixon got into foul trouble URI feasted on the offensive glass in the 2nd half.  The inability to close late has been the lead story in every PC loss, but poor interior defense could just as well be the headline.  There was no more telling sign that the loss to Rhody.  Providence won the battle inside in the first half and led by 14, got crushed inside in the 2nd and quickly lost control of a game they could have wrapped up with an early run.
• Either Kyle Wright is going through a confidence crisis or the Hartford ProAm is a layup drill.  The safe bet is somewhere in-between.  Expectations were probably too high for this kid if you look at his history.  The worst thing to happen to him was the label of potential high scoring shooter, rather than simply "experienced stop gap."
• I'm dying for the arrival of Gerard Coleman and the hype machine on Joe Young is having an effect on me as well, but unless Ron Giplaye is ready to play as a freshman or James Still and/or Kadeem Batts greatly improve next year it won't matter.  Providence will continue to be a team that scores in waves, but struggles to defend the paint and rebound.  Still has drawn comparisons to Marcus Douthit, but by December of his freshman year Douthit scored Big East rookie of the week after a 22-11 game against Brown and he was a regular contributor on a NCAA team. 
• PC takes on Brown tomorrow night at the Dunk.

What Could Have Been for Timmy

The Tim Welsh era was filled with a lot of "could have been" stories that never panned out.  The most famous being that if Julius Hodge commits to Syracuse, and in turn takes their final scholarship, then Hakim Warrick ends up at Providence forming a three man class of Warrick-Gomes-Sanders.  But, that's life on the recruiting trail (the more painful what-if, and one that somehow goes under the radar is the loss of Abdul Mills prior to the 2003-04 season.  That team had it all, except for a guard who could create off of the bounce.  I saw them play a month prior to the season and Mills was wearing out Donnie McGrath, Kabba, and Brewington.  Kid was the best player on the floor both times I saw them that fall.  The four game losing streak at season's end was the story, but the loss of Mills as a true scoring threat next to Gomes, meant this team got nothing out of its guards unless they were hitting from 3).

By 2007 the Welsh era had run its course.  He'd get another year that basically served as a wasted season for Friar fans.  He was now in full-on under the radar recruiting mode, as evidenced by his final three classes (Bilal Dixon as the lone recruit in his final year, Greedy/Brooks/Kellogg the year prior, and McKenzie/Hall/Barney/Dwain Williams three years ago).

Dixon looks like a servicable rotation player, while the 06 McKenzie class and the 04 DeSean White class made up a disaster sandwhich around the poor Curry/McDermott group that never recovered from having to carry the load.

Quietly though, the 07 group is emerging and it could have morphed into a monster class had they landed a kid out of Gomes' hometown.

How would a three man class of Peterson, Brooks and Damien Saunders fared?  Probably not good enough to save Welsh's job since they were freshman in his final season, but it would have been a hell of a last gasp.

Brooks' numbers have been phenomenal.  Somehow no one has noticed that's he's shooting over 50% from the field and 48% from 3.  Combined that with 2 steals and a block in only 28 minutes of play and you can't ask for much more than that.

Peterson's arrival has gotten more pub because of how surprising it is.  I was hoping he'd turn into a suped-up Erron Maxey, but the kid has feasted, going for 16 and 10, while only turning the ball over five times in seven games.

Substitute Saunders for the formerly overwhelmed and now properly placed in Ohio Alex Kellogg and you're adding the nation's second leading rebounder (trailing the nation's best kept secret Artisom Parakhouski who is averaging 25 and 16, including a 23 and 14 game against Duke and 26 and 20 against Saunders and Duquesne*) and a kid who had 10 steals in his first two games and 11 blocks in his last two. 

Against Iowa Saunders racked up 16 points, 16 rebounds, six steals, and three blocks, while hitting both of his 3 pointers in Duquesne's 52-50 win.

Saunders wasn't good enough to save Welsh's job as a freshman, but it is interesting to note that in the midst of a bunch of average to poor recruiting classes, TW came fairly close to hitting a home run in his second to last run.  Could he have coached Brooks, Peterson, and Saunders to where they are now?  A different topic for a different day.

* Parakhouski didn't even know what the NCAA tournament was a few years ago and the next thing you know he's putting up monster numbers against ACC teams.  6'10, 260 pounds out of Belarus with a knack for pulling down 20 boards on any given night.  This guy would be a cult figure in Providence.

November 14, 1998: Down Goes Odom

What horrible luck I had.  Everyone from the class of 2001 remembers watching Providence's Elite 8 run as high school seniors and thinking either "Why couldn't I have been born a year earlier?" or the more naive thought "I can't wait for this when I get there!" 

I would complain about my four years at PC (1997-2001) with one NCAA appearance and a loss to brothers from Penn State who looked like they couldn't guard me (still to this day don't know how Linehan didn't torture the Crispins), but at least we saw the tournament, which is more than you can say for anyone stepping on campus since 2005.

What all PC classes have in common is that one URI game that sticks out.  For us it was our sophomore year clash with a Rams team coming off of an Elite 8 appearance the year before.  This one stood out because it was one of those "cringe-worthy pregames turned 'how long can we hold onto this 8 point lead' turned 'holy shit, we're going to win this thing!'" games.

Note: Other notable cringe-worthy pregames turned "holy shit" games include the Patriots vs. Rams "let's just hope we aren't completely humiliated out there" Super Bowl and Providence vs. Pitt in 2009.

Why it was cringe-worthy beforehand: The URI backcourt of Cuttino Mobley and Tyson Wheeler was terrifyingly good enough to push them to the brink of the Final Four the previous season.  They were gone, which was great, but now they were adding a quasi-student 6'10 high school All American who many thought would be the top pick in the NBA draft the next season in Lamar Odom to go along with good role players in Luther Clay, Antonio Reynolds-Dean (now coaching at Northeastern) and Tavorris Bell (now an And1 castoff)?  I referred to Odom as quasi-student back then because I was bitter that URI got him, but it took a good 10 years before we really knew just how thick this guy was when he married a fellow 6'10 quasi-illiterate, yet smartest of the  Kardashian sisters, after dating her for three weeks.

What did PC throw out there against them?  A team that had lost to Team Fokus to kick of the Tim Welsh regime.  Oh, Timmy.

What made this game great?

• Thomas was electric, scoring 30 points (19 in the 1st half) on 5-8 from three point land.  Most notably, he threw down a dunk in garbage time, stood there and snarled for a good five seconds, completely disregarding any notion of getting back on defense in the coolest thing anyone at PC did from 97-01, leading us to coin the term "Jamel face."  He was going pro after his junior year, there was no doubt after this one.
• Odom gave a preview of his 2008 Finals play ten years early with a 5 point (zero in the 2nd half), 8 turnover performance.  "It was a very humbling experience," according to Lamar. 
• The AP headline "Even Providence coach Tim Welsh was surprised by the way the Friars beat No. 23 Rhode Island."  How didn't we know?
• The 24 point win was PC's biggest over URI since 1967.
• In what has become an annual tradition we watch 10 minutes of the Mal Brown scrimmage, each pick a guy we can't stand and one we each love and stand by him with everything we've got.  For my roommate, he took his Jamal Camah love to the next level, bringing signs to every game.  Upon rushing the court he flashed the sign in Camah's face after perhaps his best game in a Friar uniform - 11 points.  Camah stood there half stunned, assumingly trying to figure out if he was being made fun of, but also somehow feeling like it was justified.  "Keep that coming, boy" he confidently boasted as he left the court.   

URI and Odom had the last laugh (see video), but it was a great afternoon at the Dunk.