Potential Impact of Providence's 2010 Class

Expectations for Providence's 2010 class are growing by the day.  Between stories of Gerard Coleman going for 35 seemingly every night and Joe Young getting named to MaxPreps midseason McDonald's All American team, PC fans are dying to get this group on campus.

For all of the talk surrounding Friar fans' unrealistic expectations for their team and their coach, Providence fans are a realistic bunch when it comes to incoming freshman. 

A few weeks back this site compared the 2010 class to the class 2003 trio of Dwight Brewington, Gerald Brown, and Jeff Parmer.  The '03 class had little impact in year 1 (a combined 7 ppg), joining a veteran tournament team, and for all of the talk about how disappointing the class was as things began to fall apart for them, there was little complaint about the lack of immediate impact.

What is a fair expectation of the 2010 group?  Certainly, Providence fans will, and should, expect better numbers than the '03 class, as minutes will be more readily available from the start.  With Sharaud Curry graduating, someone is going to have to make up for his 19 ppg in conference play.

If we fast forward a year, how do we judge the success of this freshman class?  Here is the criteria I'll be measuring them against:

1. Statistical output in comparison to the most productive and highly rated Big East freshman and freshman in PC history (taking into account the roster he joined and the playing time available).   
2. Won/loss record in comparison to the year before
3. Defensive impact (team FG%, steals/block #s)
4. Offensive impact (team assist, FG%, etc.)

A closer look at statistical output: Does 12 points per game for either of the high scoring incoming guards sound outlandish?

While Coleman and Young have put up huge scoring numbers at the prep and high school levels, scoring over 12.3 ppg next season would place either of them in the top 3 in the history of Providence basketball.  Only two freshman in PC history have scored over 13 ppg, Ryan Gomes in 2002 (13.8) and John Arzoomanian in 1945 (19.7). 

2009 Big East top 100 freshman (per ESPN):

#12 Lance Stephenson - 12 ppg, 5.1 reb, 28.9 min

#16 Dante Taylor - 4.9 ppg, 4.7 reb, 15.7 min

#18 Mouphtaou Yarou - 3.3 ppg, 3.2 reb, 13.4 min

#19 Dominic Cheek - 5.3 ppg, 2.9 reb, 15 min

#20 Alex Oriakhi - 5.3 ppg, 7.9 reb, 27. 5 min

#23 Malik Wayns - 8.7 ppg, 17 min

#25 Peyton Siva - 4.6 ppg, 11.4 min

#33 Jamal Coombs-McDaniel - 3.4 ppg, 1.3 reb, 11 mins

#41 Isaiah Armwood - 2.2 ppg, 9.3 min

#58 DaShonte Riley - 2.1 ppg, 10.6 min

#60 Dan Jennings - 2.0 ppg, 5.2 min

#76 Junior Cadougan - injured

#78 Rakeem Buckles - 3.5 ppg, 3.7 reb, 11.9 min

#79 Jeronne Maymon - left Marquette

#94 Lamar Patterson - 2.3 ppg, 1.2 reb, 10.4 min

#95 Erik Williams - 1.8 ppg, 12 min

#96 Dalton Pepper - 4.4 ppg, 10 min


Analysis:

The numbers from the top 100 freshmen in the Big East don't blow anyone away.  Coleman, Young, and Giplaye come to Providence under different circumstances than any of the freshman listed above who joined national powers.  With Providence graduating two starters, minutes will be available next year, but if Providence plans to move Greedy Peterson over to small forward next season does the backcourt situation get crowded with two senior wings returning, along with the emerging Duke Mondy? 

Anything approaching Stephenson numbers (28 minutes, 12 points, 5 rebounds) from any of the three would be a home run.  12 points per game would put them on par with the highest scoring freshman in the conference and among the top 3 in the history of Providence basketball.