1. Lack of penetrators: Vincent Council is the only player on this roster capable of taking good Big East defenders off of the dribble. Sharaud Curry is more shifty than quick, Greedy Peterson's bull in a China shop drives are inconsistent, Duke Mondy and Brian McKenzie cannot take players off of the dribble at this level, and we've not seen enough of Johnnie Lacy to properly gauge his speed.
Can this improve next year? Yes, and it is one of the reasons why this site will insist that Gerard Coleman is a starter from day 1 next season. The impact of a guard who can get into the teeth of the defense and make plays was on display tonight when Vincent Council was taken out of the game. Keno Davis did not start him in the 2nd half and the game got away from the Friars immediately. When Council went into attack mode in the final 10 minutes of the first half PC made it a game.
In the 2nd half Syracuse made a concerted effort to close on Council and they did a better job on him. Providence needs another guard who can make plays off of the dribble and Coleman will instantly upgrade the Friars in that area.
2. Big Man Depth: It's been talked about, but not enough in Providence circles. This team is sorely lacking big men. Bilal Dixon has given PC good minutes as a freshman, but the fact is he is a first year player and Providence relies on him more than they should have to.
Dixon is undersized at the 5, but is PC's only option there at this point. Ray Hall is a great story, but watching him struggle to finish at the rim, as the first big man off of the bench, is a telling sign of how far James Still and Kadeem Batts have to go and an indication of what a miss Russ Permenter was.
Can this improve next year? It has to. One of the reasons why this site doesn't have Providence realistically looking at a tournament bid until 2011-12 is the projected lack of big man depth next season. Production from the 1-3 positions should be sufficient with Council, Brooks, Mondy, Peterson (assuming he slides to the 3, which isn't looking likely right now),Wright, and two good freshman options on the way, but who spells Dixon?
Optimists point to the improvement of Peterson in his redshirt year, but is that an anomaly? Time will tell. How many kids can PC fans realistically expect Keno Davis' staff to transform to the extent that Peterson did in the last year?
On the bright side, PC doesn't need Still or Batts to make a Greedy-like quantum leap, they just need them to be able to provide solid minutes off of the bench - score around the basket and hold their own defensively. Throw in the physically ready Ron Giplaye into the mix and you have three kids who PC will be looking to step up. If two of them can give Providence a rebounding and interior defensive presence this team could find itself on the bubble. If Dixon is on an island again this team is a 7-9, 8-8 Big East team tops.
The wild card: does Keno land a fourth recruit this year to boost next year's frontcourt?
3. Shooters: This team is putting up numbers, so it has been overshadowed a bit, but where are the true shooters on this team? Peterson hits 3s when his feet are set, same with Curry, and Mondy shows flashes, but Providence is lacking that "the entire crowd is watching our gunner curl off of a screen in hopes of a back-breaking 3" shooter.
PC is shooting 33% from beyond the arc this season.
Can this improve next year? It's tough to say. Mondy has a quick release and the sense here is that he is a better shooter than he's shown during his freshman season. Curry is the best outside shooter on the team and he'll be gone, so fans will look to freshman Joe Young as a possible immediate replacement. I'll take my chances with the great slasher (Coleman) coming in and having an earlier impact than the great shooter, as there are different ways for the slasher to impact the game (finishing at the rim, getting to the line, drive and dish).
The most highly regarded shooter coming into Providence in recent memory was Donnie McGrath, who struggled in conference play, connecting on only 26% from 3 during his freshman season.
4. Basketball IQ: Missed assignments on defense and poor shot selection have really hurt Providence this year. Never was the lack of situational basketball IQ on display more than just before halftime against Syracuse. The Friars had snuck back into the game, pulling to within 3 by getting to the key and finding cutters and McKenzie pulls the trigger on a 27 foot 3 with 15 seconds left on the clock. Just awful.
Can this improve next year? It's the classic chicken or egg debate: do these players take bad shots because they don't high a high basketball IQ or because Davis' style allows for too much offensive freedom? We'll find out soon enough, but the guess here is the shot selection will improve as the talent level does. If Keno gives every player on the court the green light to fire at will, then why don't we see Council jacking forced 3s?
5. Transition Defense: The most frustrating part of this season has been the poorous transition defense. It allowed South Florida to hang around and let teams like Syracuse run a layup drill.
Struggling in the interior defensively is reasonable considering how shallow this roster is, but players trotting back on defense and barely grazing guys on the way to the basket instead of fouling with force is tough to stomach for Providence fans. How many times did Syracuse get an and-1 in which they were barely touched?
#4 affects 5 as better shot selection will lead to fewer transition opportunities.
Can this improve next year? Another aspect that has to. The lack of transition defense often looks like a lacking sense of urgency, which is just a bad look.
