My only WVU note: Keno has to find some guys he can trust to make plays going forward. Council seems to be forcing a bit recently and Greedy's numbers are great, but much of his offense is starting to feel accidental. With Ebanks taking Curry out of the game today this team really struggled.
Two weeks ago I wrote an article cautioning Friar fans not to expect too much too soon from PC's incoming class of Gerard Coleman, Joe Young, and Ron Giplaye. Of all of the top 100 recruits entering the Big East this year, few have had the impact Providence would need one of their freshman to have if they expect to make a run at a tournament bid next season.
While only one top 100 Big East newcomer is averaging double figures in points per game, Providence's 2010 class comes to Friartown with high expectations, but more importantly plenty of available playing time.
As noted in that article, the most recent class that was ranked as highly as this one was the Brewington/Brown/Parmer trio that averaged 7 points per game combined. The circumstances were far different for that group though, as it mirrored what most newcomers to competitive Big East teams face - a lack of minutes. That group joined a 2003-04 squad that made the tournament without contributions from any of them.
The other tournament team of the decade (2001) allowed four freshman to come in as role players, and they did so magnificently. Marcus Douthit gave solid minutes as a backup 5, Sheiku Kabba hit clutch shots, and Chris Anrin and Maris Laksa stretched defenses with their shooting.
The class was exposed a year later when they were forced to play bigger roles. We're going to get an idea early of how good Coleman, Young, and Giplaye are as this team graduates a guard scoring nearly 20 a game in Big East play, lacks shooters and front court depth.
Freshman from the Past Decade as Scorers:
Seemingly, the most successful freshman of the past decade were those allowed to play a role on a winning team, but there were some surprisingly good first years sprinkled in. Let's take a look at how some of the freshman of the past decade have fared and what that might mean for PC's 2010 crop.
The Gold Standard: Ryan Gomes started 23 games his freshman season and averaged 13 and 8 in Big East play. The special ones can usually play from day 1, they may be role players on good teams but the signs are usually there. Gomes shined from the second he first stepped on the court at South Carolina.
It's rare that a post player comes in and contributes to this extent, especially at PC.
The Shooters: The best incoming shooters were, arguably, Donnie McGrath, Maris Laksa, and Dwain Williams. Interestingly, McGrath had the best career of the three shooters, but the worst shooting freshman season. It was poor actually. Donnie scored 9 ppg his freshman season, in a starting role, but only hit on 33% of his 3s and 26% from 3 in Big East play. Clearly, the great shooting from his high school days did not immediately transfer over in the faster pace of high major basketball.
Somewhat surprisingly, and forgotten, were the solid freshman years of Williams and Laksa. Laksa averaged 9 ppg and shot 46% from 3, and a tremendous 49% on 3s in Big East play. He started three games. Williams started a handful of games his freshman season and contributed 8 ppg on 44% shooting from 3.
The role players shot the ball far better in year 1. It will be interesting to see what sort of role Joe Young plays next season and how his shooting percentages compare. PC fans would be thrilled with 9 points and nearly 50% from 3 off of the bench in BE play - crazy to think Laksa was that productive.
Much better as sophomores: Abdul Mills and Rome Augustin were thrust into starting roles their freshman season (15 games for Mills, 23 for Rome) that they weren't ready for, and it showed. Each averaged a respectable 7 ppg, but shot 28 and 27% from 3 that year and in the mid-30s from the field. The team was horrific.
A year later both were starters on a tournament team, with Mills 3s bumping up to 35% and Rome's up to 40%.
Next year's team has far more experience coming back than the 1999-2000 club which really just had Erron Maxey and lost John Linehan after six games. Those quick to point at Duke Mondy's year 1 shooting figures may want to note the bump Mills and Augustin saw in year 2 and the horrible percentages McGrath put up in his freshman year.
Coleman and Young should not be thrown into a similar position as they'll be playing alongside a good point guard (the 1999 crew didn't have one), a solid 5 and a power forward capable of averaging 20 and 10.
Good in Year 1: Sure, the Geoff McDermott, Sharaud Curry, Weyinmi Efejuku, and Jon Kale class never sniffed the NCAA tournament, but their freshman seasons were not an indicator of the years to come. McDermott was an immediate 9-9 guy who figured to see a jump in numbers once he improved offensively (40% shooter).
Curry was the other bright spot of the class, scoring 11.9 ppg, on 36% from 3 and starting 23 games at the point as a freshman.
With no outside shot to speak of, Efejuku averaged 8 ppg on 35% shooting.
If you look long enough, you can find some similarities between that team and next year's. Both graduated players who put up big scoring numbers in Big East play (Gomes then, Curry next year), each had one kid they knew could score in the Big East (McGrath, Greedy), and they had a handful of kids who showed flashes, but never strung together consistent double digit scoring nights (Hanke, Hill, Brooks, Dixon). Both teams had plenty of minutes available for the freshmen.
Seeing as Curry put up nearly 12 ppg and Efejuku landed at 8, and factoring in that next year's team has a few more kids who can score than the 2005 squad, it is reasonable to expect Coleman or Young to land in the 8-11 ppg territory.
That being said, anything over 12 puts them among the top three freshman scorers in PC history.
