Saturday, March 13, 2010

Feeling Good and Feeling Bad about 2009-10

What a divisive year in Friartown.  There are those that see a team that has the ability to put 67 on the board in the 2nd half of a Big East Tournament game, light up Syracuse in the first half at the Dunk, watch a bit player with little offense game turn into a 19 & 10 guy, and see major inroads being made on the recruiting trail and think that once Keno Davis shores up his defense (even just a little) and brings in better players to run his offense things will be looking great on Smith Hill.

There are others who are horrified by a defense that allowed over 90 points 12 times this season and broke a Big East record for points per game.  They see points being put on the board, but clutch and smart offense not always being played when Providence needs it the most.  They think that it's fantastic that Providence is bringing in a higher caliber player, but recognize that a couple top 100 players is par for the course in the Big East.  It's going to take both a talent and on court upgrade for this team to not just compete, but consistently win in the best conference in college basketball.

Friarbasketball falls somewhere in the middle, after having leaned towards optimistic all season, but showing signs of concern after watching layup drills break out in so many games late in the season.

Top 3 Things that have Friarbasketball feeling good

Recruiting efforts: Yes, landing top 100 talent in what I deem their first real recruiting class is a great sign and Providence's heavy involvement with underclassmen like Naadir Tharpe, Khem Birch, and Shabazz Napier gives Providence fans reason for hope, but it also signifys something greater - this coaching staff gets it.  They get that they have to really upgrade the talent here, but more importantly they understand that they have to work very hard to do so.  And they are.

One of the most discouraging things about the old regime was seeing them set the bar low and all but rule out top 75 recruits by the end.  This staff is aggressively going after these types, because you have to in order to win against teams landing mega-classes.

PC fans will love Gerard Coleman, but even more important than what Coleman, Joe Young, or Ron Giplaye can provide in year one is the fact that the staff has a clear understanding of the need for a talent upgrade and the willingness to work hard to get it done.

Player development: Greedy Peterson goes from a guy who can't crack the rotation of an NIT team to the first player to average a double double since Michael Smith.  No matter what the style of play, no one expected 29 and 20 versus Rutgers, 24 and 18 at Pitt, and 38 and 14 in the BET.  He has flaws, but Greedy finishes the season 4th in the conference in points per game and second in rebounds.

Peterson deserves credit for improving this much in his year away, but it was done under this staff, so they get points here as well. 

Providence's other redshirt, Bilal Dixon, closed his freshman season with a 19 rebound effort and a 16 and 12 BET game.  It's no coincidence that they are putting up huge numbers after a year of strictly practicing.

The biggest challenge in front of this staff will be to turn Peterson into athletically freakish stat killer to athletically freakish stat killer who understands what is a good shot, how to get his teammates involved, and playing some semblance of defense.

Getting jumps in production from this year's freshman is equally important.

Scoring: While it wasn't always pretty, this team scored in bunches (82.4 ppg).  Most impressive was who they did it with.  Besides Sharaud Curry, who were the shooters on this team?  On a team of 7 newcomers, who gave them consistent offense aside from Vincent Council?  Without Bilal Dixon, who played center?

Without a big man to dump the ball into, with only one pure shooter (33% from 3 as a team), and without a top notch slasher this team finished second in the conference in points per game, while not shooting it all that well and not getting to the free throw line as much as they'd like. 

They didn't turn the ball over, hit the offensive glass hard for an undersized team, and finished first in the BE in 3 pointers made per game.  What will this offense look like with more shooters and play-makers?

Reason to watch in 2010-11

Athleticism: The addition of Coleman to a lineup including Peterson and Council gives Providence their most athletic team in recent memory.  Peterson is an elite leaper, Council surprised with his speed and change of direction ability, and Coleman is as fast as any Providence player brought in since God Shamgod.  Gerard is a blur in the open court.

The days of Donnie McGrath running the point with Sheiku Kabba are long gone and at the least Providence will have games when they wow PC fans with pure speed and athleticism.  When is the last time that has happened at the Dunk?  Coleman and Council give Providence the athletes to matchup up with any in the Big East and Friar fans should enjoy watching it start to come together next season.


Top 3 Things that have Friarbasketball worried about next season

Defense: Is there much to add to what Jay Bilas and Sean McDonough beat into the nation's head this week?  The rant may have been over the top, but there isn't much Providence fans can say to argue the fact that this team was poor defensively and didn't improve in that area as the season wore on.

The George Washington game was a bad sign, but teams fix flaws from December over the course of a season.  This wasn't a flaw, but a gaping hole that PC never filled.

Opponents shot a scary 47% from the field, while scoring 82.2 ppg.  To put that in perspective, Providence gave up nearly 600 more points than Pittsburgh this year and played one less game.

The underrated aspect of the poor defense was not having a big man who protected the rim.  Which leads us to...

Length: Finding talented big men is hard, but at this point PC fans would just take some servicable role players who can give Keno minutes off of the bench.  With the way they score Providence really only needs a player who can finish around the hoop, defend the rim, and rebound to back up Dixon and Peterson.

Russ Permenter provided little, Ray Hall is too limited physically, and James Still didn't have the body to hold up.

Hall is gone, Permenter might follow, leaving Providence with Dixon, Still, the redshirt Kadeem Batts, and 6'6 prospect Ron Giplaye as it stands today.  This is the make or break area for Keno heading into next season and one that stands as a large question mark today. 

Providence will have trouble winning playing as small as they did this year and they'll need Still or Batts to emerge or hope that Giplaye or a spring signee can play come November.  Look for PC fans to pin much of their hope on Batts, the 6'9 and bulking up redshirt freshman.  Anything close to a Dixon-like redshirt freshman season would be a smashing success and huge for this team's prospects.  A third redshirt jump in two years and even the biggest naysayers will have to notice a trend developing.

Still redshirting is not 100% guaranteed at this point.

Shooters: I'll bang this drum for a while.  With Curry gone, who is the true shooter on this roster?  Incoming Joseph Young out of Houston will look to fill the void Curry left as the knock down shooter, but that is putting a lot on a freshman. 

Duke Mondy could help in this regard if he regains his stroke (have a hunch he will), but between Peterson, Marshon Brooks, Council, and Coleman there isn't a knock down shooter in the bunch.

Does using a scholarship on a zone busting, but limited in other areas, sniper make sense?

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Next year will be fascinating in Providence as Davis enters his third year at Providence.  Recruiting will continue to be something to follow and the team should be more athletic, while questions about this coaching staff's ability to teach defense will become clearer.

Over the next couple of months Friarbasketball will head to AAU tournaments to provide updates on PC's top recruits and emerging players to keep an eye on, in an important offseason in Friartown.