Tuesday, August 31, 2010

PC Preview: How Providence PG rotation stacks up against BE

No one said life in the Big East is easy.  With inexperience in the frontcourt and at shooting guard, the strength of the 2010-11 Friars looks to be their point guard play, spearheaded by Vincent Council.  The sturdy, 6'2 sophomore is the second leading assist man returning to the Big East this year and could be one of the top three passers in the conference.
Of the returnees this year, only Pittsburgh’s Brad Wannamaker averaged more assists (4.7 to 4.5) than Council and he did it in five more minutes per game (32 to 27).  It is reasonable to expect Council to be near the top of the conference in assists assuming a bump in playing time, the natural growth from his freshman season, and the style of play that Keno Davis is trying to incorporate at PC, but he loses one of the league’s best finishers in Jamine Peterson and may find it more difficult to penetrate with the lack of shooters on this roster. 
For all of his flaws defensively, Providence lost an experienced lead guard and terrific outside shooter in Sharaud Curry.  There is no doubt now about who the point guard is on this team.  While Davis prefers to rotate his players in and out quickly, Curry played over 30 minutes per game a season ago and that was with Council playing behind or alongside him.  Expect Council to log 32 minutes per game this year.
The remaining 8-10 minutes per game look to be a competition between incoming freshman: Dallas product Dre Evans and Arizona native Bryce Cotton.  If either can provide an effective 10 minutes per game in year one it would have to be considered a success when factoring in when they signed.  I only caught a glimpse of Evans during his first scrimmage with his new teammates (not the most fair time to judge) and have yet to see Cotton, who is said to be a combo guard. 
How does the Friars point guard rotation stack up against the rest of the Big East?
There are six teams you can confidently say Providence is stronger than at the 1: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Rutgers, South Florida, DePaul, and St. John’s. 
Marquette loses Maurice Acker, but returns highly-regarded sophomore Junior Cadougan, the burly Canadian who missed a majority of his freshman season due to injury.  Cadougan and Illinois freshman Reggie Smith have potential to be a solid duo, but based on track record Providence has to get the nod there as well. 
The same could be said for Louisville combo Peyton Siva and incoming freshman Russ Smith.  Siva, a high school All American, had little impact in his first year (3 ppg, 1 ast), while Smith is an athletic combo scorer out of South Kent who could provide a real punch off of the bench for Rick Pitino.  He was impressive whenever I saw him a year ago.
From there, you could make a case that the rest of the Big East has as good, or better point guard rotations.  Note: I said rotation, not lead guard.  Here’s a breakdown of some of the best point guard rotations we’ll see this year:
Connecticut: A case can be made for the Huskies having the best point guard rotation in the conference.  Kemba Walker is a blur who can get to the line as well as anyone point guard in the nation (17 FT attempts vs. WVU and 16 vs. Nova) while Shabazz Napier is the best incoming point guard in the conference.  The kid will score right away.  Notably, Council played one of his best games of the season in a win over Connecticut a year ago.
Notre Dame: While a different type of point guard than Council, the Irish will rely on Ben Hansbrough to man the point unless Baltimore freshman Eric Atkins can take over, allowing the sharp-shooting Hansbrough to play the 2.  Hansbrough put up 12 points and 4.5 assists while shooting over 40% from 3 a year ago.
Pittsburgh: Wannamaker led the conference in assists a year ago and he’ll be backed by Hargrave stud Isaiah Epps, one of the highest rated guards to enter the conference this year.
Syracuse: The exciting Scoop Jardine will lead the Orange after a solid year off of the bench.  We’ve seen freshman at PC outperform their counterparts in year 1 (think Geoff McDermott vs Jeff Adrien freshman year), but if Council wants to be elite he’ll outperform the likes of Jardine the next two seasons (Jardine is a junior).  After sitting out a year Jardine was quite possibly the best bench player in the country.
Villanova: It must be nice to be Jay Wright.  Scottie Reynolds leaves, you don’t add a big name point guard and you still have two studs in the fold.  Corey Fisher might be the best scoring guard in the league and former high school All American Maalik Wayns should flourish with additional playing time as a sophomore.
West Virginia: Depth is key for the Mountaineers.  They return experience in Joe Mazzulla and Truck Bryant, both starter-level 1s, and add a top 100 freshman in Noah Cottril.
Georgetown: While Chris Wright feels like more of a shooting guard, I’ll put him at point here.  A top 100 point guard, Michael Starks, is on the way this year as well.
As good as Council is, there are at least seven Big East schools who could legitimately claim that they have equal or better point guard rotations – a testament to the conference, not Providence’s point guard prospects for the upcoming season.  
The Friars will rely heavily on Council in 2010-11 and if they are to surprise this year he will be at the forefront.  On a team lacking in proven Big East scorers, Council will play a critical role in generating offense for this team.  He has the potential to be a top 3 point guard in the league and will need to be if Providence intends to improve over last season. 
In the next edition of the season preview I'll write a player preview of Vincent Council which will examine his freshman season and take a look at what to expect from his sophomore year.